USA ELECTS – a blog about US elections

House Elections

Here are my ratings for the House elections of 2016. In 2014 I was correct about the outcome down to ONE seat – I underestimated the GOP wave by that much. I can’t recall how many individual seats I got wrong, but it was somewhere between 10 and 20.

The table should be fairly self-explanatory. D++ means “Likely Dem”, D+ is “Leans Dem”, R++ is “Likely Republican” and R+ is “Leans Republican”. All seats not mentioned here are considered “safe” for one or the other party (consult the respective state pages for more info). An asterisk * signifies an incumbent.

By “lean” I mean any seat where I’m 50-60% certain of the outcome. Note that I DO NOT operate with a “tossup” category, as those are for girly men.

By “likely” I mean any seat where I’m 60-95% certain of the outcome. Almost every cycle there’s at least one district that’s been on pretty much no one’s radar, yet ends up being very, very close. So far I’ve yet to be wrong about any of these “safe” districts, but as long as the Representative has competition from someone with a pulse, I’m only 95% certain in any given district.

Updated May 11, 2016.

 

DISTRICT DEM REP            RATING
Alaska Lindbeck Young* R++
Arizona 1 O’Halleran ? D+
Arizona 2 ? McSally* R+
Arizona 9 Synema* ? D++
California 3 Garamendi* Cleek D++
California 7 Bera* Jones D+
California 9 McNerney* ? D++
California 16 Costa* ? D+
California 21 ? Valadao* R++
California 24 ? ? D+
California 26 Brownley* Dagnesses D++
California 31 Aguilar* ? D++
California 36 Ruiz* Stone D++
California 52 Peters* ? D+
Colorado 6 Carroll Coffman* R+
Connecticut 4 Hines* ? D++
Connecticut 5 Esty* ? D++
Florida 6 ? ? R++
Florida 13 Crist ? D++
Florida 18 ? ? R+
Florida 26 ? Curbelo* D+
Illinois 10 Schneider Dold* R+
Illinois 11 Foster* Khouri D++
Illinois 12 Baricevic Bost* R++
Illinois 13 Wicklund Davis* R++
Indiana 9 Yoder Hollingsworth R++
Iowa 1 ? Blum* D+
Iowa 3 ? Young* R+
Maine 2 Cain Poliquin* R+
Maryland 6 Delaney* Hoeber D++
Michigan 1 ? ? R+
Michigan 7 Driskell Wahlberg* R+
Minnesota 2 Craig ? D+
Minnesota 8 Nolan* Mills D+
Montana 1 Juneau Zinke* R++
Nebraska 2 Ashford* Bacon R+
Nevada 3 ? ? R++
Nevada 4 ? Hardy* R+
New Hampshire 1 ? Guinta* R+
New Hampshire 2 Kuster* ? D++
New Jersey 5 Gottheimer Garrett* R+
New York 1 ? Zeldin* R+
New York 3 ? Martins D+
New York 18 Maloney* ? D++
New York 19 ? ? R+
New York 21 Derrick Stefanik* R++
New York 22 ? ? R+
New York 23 Plumb Reed* R++
New York 24 ? Katko* R+
New York 25 Slaughter* Assini D++
North Carolina 13 ? ? R++
Pennsylvania 8 Santarsiero Fitzpatrick R+
Texas 23 Gallego Hurd* R+
Utah 4 Owens Love* R+
Virginia 5 Dittmar ? R++
Virginia 10 Bennett Comstock* R++
West Virginia 2 ? Mooney* R++
Wisconsin 8 ? ? R+
+ 10 20 30
++ 14 14 28
Sikre 167 210 377
Sum 191 244 435
FL 2 was “Lean Democratic”, but is now safe for the GOP.
FL 10 and VA 4 were safe Republican, but are now safe for the Dems.

 

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